The next two weeks will serve as a crucial test of American leverage: is the threat of “massive sanctions” enough to compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to change his course on Ukraine? President Trump is betting that it is.
The U.S. is wielding its primary weapon of the 21st century—economic power. By threatening to cut off access to markets and financial systems, Washington is hoping to impose a cost on Moscow that is too high to bear.
However, Russia has spent years attempting to sanction-proof its economy and has demonstrated a high tolerance for economic pain when it perceives its core security interests to be at stake. Putin’s passionate defense of sovereignty underscores this resilience.
Putin’s conciliatory words for Trump suggest the leverage is having some effect, at least enough to bring him to the table for a discussion. The ultimate test, however, is not whether Putin will talk, but whether he will take the specific action Trump has demanded: meeting with President Zelensky.