New research highlights a potential alliance dilemma for Australia: trust in the United States has dipped significantly, yet support for the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal remains steady. A majority also believes China will be the world’s most powerful country by 2035.
Only 36% of Australians surveyed expressed trust in the US to act responsibly globally, a precipitous 20-point fall from last year and the lowest figure recorded since the think tank initiated its surveys in 2005. This decline is particularly acute concerning the current US President, whose approach to world affairs garners significantly less confidence than his predecessor. Conversely, the Chinese leader has seen a modest rise in confidence, with Australians equally split on the reliability of the two nations’ leaders.
Despite the erosion of trust in the US, support for the AUKUS deal remains robust, with two-thirds of those polled in favor. This suggests Australians differentiate between the current US administration and the long-term strategic benefits of the alliance. This resilience in AUKUS support, even as confidence in the US wavers, indicates a complex public sentiment.
The ongoing support for the military alliance with the US, even in the face of declining trust in its current leadership, indicates a nuanced public understanding that separates short-term policy unpredictability from long-term institutional relationships. The narrowing gap in trust between Australia’s key security ally and China is a remarkable development, highlighting a significant shift in regional perceptions.